1. Another Good Year For Dslr But Slugghish For Compact Digicams

yoshi · #1 16-01-09

Ascii Japan issued an interesting and good report about 2008 digital camera sales in Japan based on BCN information.

As it looks like worth sharing, I post here the summary in several separate postings in order to make it shorter per posting.

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1. ANOTHER GOOD YEAR FOR DSLR BUT SLUGGHISH FOR COMPACT DIGICAMS - Overall Outlook of Total Digital Camera Market in 2008

- Here "digital camera" means both compact digicams and DSL(R)s.

- DSLR showed growth last year. In Dec., DSL(R) held 12.8% of the total market in unit terms.

And another chart to be posted separately later, shows that the DSL(R) sales was 145.8% in Dec. compared to a year earlier.

This growth of DSL(R) in the 4th Quarter, especially in Dec., is a little bit surprise to me, as the overall economy
situation sharply eroded in Dec.

- The overall sales of digicams (again, this means both compact and DSLR) in Dec. was, however, 93.8% in volume and 81.8%
in monetary value over the same month of the previous year.

- This means that the sales of compact digicams were quite sluggish last year. The sales of compact digicams occupies around
90% of the total digital camera markets in volume terms.

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(my remarks)

Why DSLR was less affected (to be precise, "it showed growth"!) by the economic turmoil than compact digicams - I wonder.

Is it because more people are simply shifting from compact to DSLR?
In my unscientific observation (= guesstimation), however, many DSLR users use both compact and DSLR.
Not a huge transition from one to another.

Does this indicate that completely new buyers just buy entry DSLR without experiencing compact digicams?
I may be wrong but for the time being at least this possibility can not be denied. It looks like many young buyers
go to DSL(R), including Panasonic G1, after experiencing digital cameras with their mobile phones.
This article as well as other BCN information do not give us sufficient demographic characteristics of buyers.
Hopefully they do that in future.

yoshi

p.s. about the chart:

- it covers 13 months between Dec. 2007 and Dec. 2008
- Red line shows the average unit price in 1000 yen. So, for example, 29.3 means 29300 yen. (the right hand scale)
- the blue bar shows unit growth over the same month of the previous year.
- the red bar shows monetary value change.
- the bar chart in the upper right shows the percentage share of DSL(R) (green bar) and compact digicams (yellow bar)
in unit volume. So in Dec. 87.2% were compact digicams.

yoshi · #2 16-01-09

2-a. Compact Digital Cameras

Although this is about compact digicams, allow me to post it here.

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- In terms of monetary value, the growth rate over the same month of the previous year never reached 100% throughout the year 2008.

- The higher end compact digicams such as Ricoh GR series were badly affected by the growth of entry class DSLRs.

- Prices of compact digicams with 8-10 MP and 10-12MP showed large decline,
while that of 12 MP or more is less prone to the price reduction.

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(my remarks)

Do you think that this is a reason of why manufactures tend to develop digicams with more and more MP? They can expect less price reduction here then.

Or does it simply mean most people want more MP - so stronger demand for higher MP cameras?

Again, unanswered questions.

yoshi

p.s.
- The chart covers 13 months between Dec. 2007 and Dec. 2008
- Red line shows the average unit price of a compact digicam in 1000 yen. (the right hand scale)
- the blue bar shows unit growth over the same month of the previous year.
- the red bar shows monetary value change. Note "77.7%" means minus 22.3% which is shown by the bar.

yoshi · #3 16-01-09

2-b. Market Share of Compact Digital Cameras

- Canon showed its strength in Compact digital market in Q4.

- Panasonic was No.1 in the spring but slipped down since then. The analyst guesses this could be because Panasonic used their resources more for G1 launched in Q4.

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- Nikon had a slow growth until Oct. but declined in Nov. and Dec. when some others showed gains. Maybe Nikon is seeking profit rather than market share.

about the chart; market share in unit % between Dec. 2007 and Dec. 2008.

dark blue = Canon
pink/purple = Casio
yellow = Sony
light blue = Fujifilm
red = Panasonic
brwon = Olympus
green = Nikon

yoshi

yoshi · #4 16-01-09

3-a. DSL(R) Sales

-Unlike compact digicams, DSL(R) showed growth in 2008.
In Dec., it was 145.8% - by 45.8% more than Dec., 2007 when the economy was in better shape.

-The average unit sales price of DSLR with 16MP or more declined largely after the summer. (this is not shown in the chart.)

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(my remarks)

-In unit terms, DSLR grew throughout the year but in aggregate monetary value it slipped in Nov. and Dec.

-I first thought the average unit price (larger) decline in Nov. or Dec. would mean more entry class sales, as is shown in the volume growth, and it was also due to price reduction. But it looks like the market is more complicated, as we see more FF sales.
- will continue.

yoshi

p.s.
- The chart covers 13 months between Dec. 2007 and Dec. 2008.
- Red line shows the average unit price of a DSLR in 1000 yen. (the right hand scale)
- the blue bar shows unit growth over the same month of the previous year.
- the red bar shows monetary value change over the same period.

yoshi · #5 16-01-09

3-b. FF

How big is the FF market? - the attached chart answers with supporting data, which makes me glad.

It was 2.3% in Jan, 1.1% in May, and then 3.1% in Oct, 4.1% in Nov. and 4.7% in Dec.

I regret the report does not say the annual percentage.

It does is growing even though it might appear slowly. The purchasers must be those that are less influenced
by the recent economic situations or those who had deliberately waited long until this day has come.

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Apart from my above remarks, the article says;

- Amateurs also started to buy FF and as a result of it, FF occupies in Dec. nearly 20% (18.5%, to be more accurate)
of the DSLR market in monetary value. In unit volume terms, as mentioned earlier, 4.7% in Dec.

- FF has grown tremendously in the second half of the year.

The new FF models from Sony Alpha 900, Nikon D700 and Canon 5D Mark 2 all jointly contributed to this.

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- the average unit price declined by 46% from 530.7K yen (around US$5900/UK pound 3960/4400 Euros)
to 288.1K yen (around US$3200/UK pounds 2150/2400 Euros).

This must be mainly due to change in model mix followed by price reduction of even more expensive FF models.

yoshi

p.s.
- The chart covers 13 months between Dec. 2007 and Dec. 2008.
- Red line shows the average unit price of a FF in 1000 yen. (the right hand scale)
- the blue bar shows unit growth over the same month of the previous year.
- the red bar shows aggregate monetary value change over the same period.

yoshi · #6 16-01-09

3-c. Market Share of DSL(R)

- Panasonic's sudden growth in Nov. is due to G1's launch. (G1 is included in DSL(R) category.)

- While talking about 2009, the writer of the article introduces a BCN analyst's view who says a movie mode is a key feature in entry and mid range dSLR and in some pro models as well.

- This BCN analyst also pointed out that micro 4/3 could further cultivate the dslr market
and added that non-top 2 manufactureres might choose to join the micro 4/3.

I wonder who they are. Sony? - well, less likely. Pentax? Sigma? Fujifilm? or even Samsun? How about Kodak or GE? - dunno at all. Sigma, Fujifilm and Kodak are (sleeping) members of 4/3rds club, though.

I'm not sure whether the BCN analyst meant specifically the micro 4/3 or simply meant non-mirror type dslr but that is what the ASCII writer wrote.

about the chart;

green = Nikon
dark blue = Canon
yellow = Sony
red = Panasonic
beighe = Hoya/Pentax
purple = Olympus

yoshi

P.S. The article does not say annual market share. According to another article I read last week, Canon was the number one in Japan last year, although the difference between Nikon is virtually nothing. I just could not find where the article was...

yoshi · #7 17-01-09

I think it better to add that the BCN analyst does not say that 2009 would be another good year for DSLR. This part is missing in my earlier summary. He says that if DSLR does not grow or even maintain the level of 2008, then total digital camera market (Japan) would be disastrous and he expects the potentiality of mirro-less type DSL.

original text: http://ascii.jp/elem/000/000/206/206191/

yoshi